March 7, 2021

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What will be the future of JCPOA?

When Biden criticized his predecessor’s policy of withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his campaign in 2020 US presidential race and said that he will return the US to the deal if he wins the election, optimism on the US return to the JCPOA and the lifting of sanctions upheld.

***Different reactions to revival of JCPOA

Nearly two weeks after the inauguration of the Biden administration, there are contradictory reactions both inside the United States and among its allies. Biden speaks about negotiations with the US allies and partners on the JCPOA and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken announces that Iran should return to the agreement and comply with its obligations; then, the United States will verify it to decide whether Washington will also return to the JCPOA. Biden’s National Security Advisor Sullivan points to Iran’s missile activities and its regional influence. American officials have begun their phone calls or face to face talks with leaders of other nations on Iran’s nuclear deal. The Zionist regime explicitly says the US should not return to the accord and describes such a change of American foreign policy as an unpleasant event. Certain neighboring states of Iran want to take part in the future negotiations on the JCPOA. The European authorities call on the Islamic Republic to return to its commitments under the deal in order to pave the ground for the US return to it. France’s President Emmanuel Macron speaks of tough negotiations in dealing with Iran and calls for Saudi Arabia’s presence in the future talks.

***JCPOA; from opening to patience

There are some points on the fate of the JCPOA and the issues that Iran should consider as its strategy:

First, such messages from different regional and international players indicate the fact that the doors for talks are open; so, Iran should not have a pessimistic attitude towards negotiations.

Second, since negotiations are based on give and take policy, the Islamic Republic can prepare itself for such an atmosphere in order to pave the way for interaction.

Third, the present situation is different from what it was in 2015, when the JCPOA was signed by the P5+1, and what happened in 2018, when the Trump administration withdrew from the deal. The new circumstances require new talks and plans; therefore, negotiators should understand the new situation.

Forth, Iranian, regional and international opponents of the JCPOA are very busy to get in the way of negotiations, but it is worth mentioning that the closure of doors of negotiation would not be beneficial for Iran and such a standoff would secure interests of warmongering players in regional and international arena.

Fifth, unlike what happened during Donald Trump’s presidency, alliances are forming to face Iran and put forward different demands and preconditions on the path of negotiations; so, Tehran is expected to play an intelligent role to confront them. In addition to creating internal consensus among all decision-making bodies, Iran should form alliances at international level to pave the way for entering new negotiating atmosphere. Tehran can also resort to the potentials of regional and international organizations, as well as important players in international community, Russia and China to this end.

The last important issue is creating a gap among opponents of diplomacy and the JCPOA particularly in regional level. Iran should get in the way of those states that want to put pressure on the Biden administration to stop its return to the nuclear deal. Through improving ties and lessening tensions with Arab states of the region, Iran will find better opportunity to boost the avenue of diplomacy and negotiations.

Writer: Ardeshir Sanai, university professor

Translator: Abbas Nattaj

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Original News : https://en.irna.ir/news/84207198/What-will-be-the-future-of-JCPOA

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