Iran Gambles on Going Back to Work With Coronavirus Undefeated

(Bloomberg) —

Iran is gradually allowing people back to work amid the worst coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East, in what could be a test case for other countries attempting to balance economic revival with public health.

Restrictions that were sometimes imposed piecemeal and often flouted have slowed the spread of the virus in Iran but are nowhere near extinguishing it. Still, the Islamic Republic’s leaders are gambling they can restore parts of the sanctions-depleted economy without a new surge in infections and deaths.

It’s a daunting challenge, one that tightly controlled China is struggling with and which will test the endurance of rich Western nations with vastly superior health-care systems in the weeks ahead. Politicians in countries with large populations of poor workers are also likely to pay close attention as Iran embarks on a path they may well have to follow.

“It’s practically impossible to have nobody leave the house,” President Hassan Rouhani said at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. “Some people need to go out for production, transportation and other needs.”

Leaders around the world are facing similar dilemmas. President Donald Trump has openly mused about ensuring shutdown cures aren’t worse than the disease, and the White House is developing plans for the extensive testing that would reopen parts of the U.S. economy, most likely starting in smaller cities and towns not yet heavily hit by virus. Denmark and Austria, among the first countries in Europe to close public life in response to the Covid-19 outbreak, have announced gradual relaxations. While in Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and surrounding regions after earlier sidestepping stricter measures.

Iran is especially vulnerable to a protracted stoppage. Three-quarters of working Iranians are self-employed or toil for little pay in small enterprises, said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech who studies Iran’s economy. Many of these businesses are unregistered and so beyond the reach of special government loan packages that rely on tax registration data.

“They are balancing economic suffering and the virus,” he said of the government.

Rouhani has told two-thirds of government employees and companies deemed “low risk” they can resume work gradually, as he tries to salvage what’s left of an economy battered by U.S. sanctions and generate revenue for hospitals pushed to the brink.

The risks are clear. While China is lifting its lockdown of Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, after all but eradicating locally transmitted new cases and reporting zero nationwide deaths on Monday, Iran is still registering around 2,000 new infections each day and at least 100 fatalities.

Not Listening

Some cities and provinces have declared themselves “white” — or no longer reporting new infections — but the situation in Tehran is still alarming to local officials.

On Monday, coronavirus task force chief Alireza Zali said the virus has reached a “pandemic stage” in the capital and that “not only aren’t we at a level to control the disease but it’s expanding.” Restrictions in Tehran will only be relaxed in a week’s time, according to Rouhani.

Restaurants, cinemas, schools, museums and shopping malls will remain closed. A ban on travel between provinces and cities will also stay, and the majority of people are still expected to remain at home.

Iran’s ruling clerics reacted slowly to the growing spread of Covid-19, with the holy city of Qom where the first cases were identified left without strict quarantine measures. The virus soon took hold nationwide and has now killed 4,000 people and infected more than 64,000.

Government failings were compounded by the refusal of many Iranians to listen to advice from an establishment they distrusted.

Millions traveled during the Persian new year in late March, defying official instructions to celebrate at home. Within days, a tentative slowdown in infection rates had reversed. Stricter curbs were imposed, and the World Health Organization said Tuesday that new cases in Iran were “flattening off.”

Then as Iran’s working week began on Saturday morning, central districts in Tehran were again humming with commuters who squeezed into metro carriages and buses even though the city is yet to ease social distancing rules.